Will Katla erupt?

As an airport transfer company, we have always relied on airports for passengers. In April 2010 when the Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted, things changed. As I stated in an earlier blog, we actually saw an increase in our turnover as a result of airport closures and passengers booked journeys to ports or train stations like Holyhead, Hull, London and Dover. Eyjafjallajökull is expected to be classed as dormant later this year as its activity ceases but fifteen miles to the east is another volcano called Katla.

Katla erupts every 40 to 80 years and causes some disruption. Historically it has had a major eruption following Eyjafjallajökull (that is three times in the last millenium). The difference between the two volcanoes is vast. Eyjafjallajökull is just a baby in comparison to Katla and the disruption caused in April 2010 is nothing compared to what could happen if Katla blows. Some people are even suggesting Katla could trigger a mini iceage for the entire northern hemisphere causing crop failures and famine for years!

Since April 2010, I have been monitoring Katla through anything broadcast on it. I began by watching the Channel 4 documentary about Eyjafjallajökull “The Volcano That Stopped Britain” with Geologist Nick Petford and how that tore through 700ft of glacial ice. I have been tweeting about the developments too, including Iceland’s president Olafur Grimsson announcing a Katla eruption is imminent. At the moment, a Katla eruption seems 50/50 with no obvious data to suggest anything substantial but there are plenty of subtle indications to suggest something could be building.

It is hard to get good quality data and educated opinions on the Internet but basically earthquake swarms are a good way to monitor early activity. I’ve been using this site to watch Katla - Iceland Meteorological office - Earthquakes Mýrdalsjökull, Iceland. There have been up to 16 quakes within a 48 hour period at times and they continue to grow - the time between swarms has been decreasing too. This shows that Katla is worthy of attention! The depths of the quakes are important as most are at the surface (and can be attributed to glacial shift activity) but a blog from one scientist reported an epicentre 27km below the ground. The magnitude of the earthquakes are another indicator and most are reading around one or less on the Richter scale but last week one earthquake measured 2.5. The next thing to watch for is deformations in the ground or venting of steam clouds as this would indicate something is going to happen with Katla.

For now though it is interesting to note that airline experts are meeting in September 2010 to discuss how to respond to another eruption. For DrivenByQ, we have already examined our business plan and discussed if we need to do something special in preparation for airport closures or in penetrating new markets sectors as an alternative income. For now though we will keep watching the Global Volcanism Program website before panicking too much!